The Russian Real Estate Market After the Massive Subsidized Mortgage Program: Residential Properties, Offices, and Warehouses
Annotation
The real estate market is typically described in terms of numbers: new supply, interest rates, transactions, vacancy rates, and financing costs. Behind each of these lies a physical environment—a house, a yard, an office floor, a warehouse district (a structural zone of the city historically occupied by warehouses, wholesale distribution centers, logistics terminals, and industrial facilities), a road, utility infrastructure, or a plot of land.
Square meters continue to exist after a transaction is closed; they become the city.
That is why the real estate market is of interest to architecture as a mechanism for producing the future environment. It reveals which forms of life receive funding, where capital is concentrated, how the relationship between the city and the suburbs is changing, which typologies are gaining scale, and what infrastructure burden the territory will bear for decades to come.
The study covers three full years—2023, 2024, and 2025. Data from 2026 are used to reflect the dynamic, short-term, and constantly changing conditions of the urban environment as of August 31, 2026, in cases where comparable indicators have already been published. In this system, housing is responsible for daily life. The office is responsible for work — that is, the performance of job duties — and presence— that is, verifying that an employee is at the workplace. The warehouse is responsible for the movement of goods. It is through these three functions that today’s market restructuring is particularly evident.
The Scale of the Real Estate Market
We assess the real estate market simultaneously across two dimensions that are directly linked:
- Economy: mortgages, sales, project financing, rental rates, and shifts in demand.
- Space: the physical manifestation of the economy after construction—residential neighborhoods, suburbs, business clusters, industrial peripheries, logistics hubs, and transportation and network capacity.
Preferential rates accelerate sales; sales drive the launch of new projects; and the launch directly shapes the density of the future neighborhood. The growth of e-commerce increases demand for warehouses, and warehouse infrastructure shapes transportation flows and the new boundaries of metropolitan areas. Corporate demand determines the parameters of an office building, and these building parameters define the quality of the work environment for decades to come.
Economic statistics are becoming an integral part of architectural research.
1. The Illusion of Prosperity
A building is included in the statistics upon completion of construction. Its actual market history begins much earlier—with the land parcel, the initial financial model, the project specifications, the cost of capital, and demand expectations.
Therefore, the date of completion reflects both the time when the decision to build was made and the time when the finished property is expected to find a buyer.
In 2023, Russia reached a record volume of residential construction—110.44 million m². According to Rosstat data cited by the Russian Ministry of Construction, 51.76 million m² were accounted for by apartment buildings, and 58.68 million m² by single-family housing. The Ministry of Construction attributed this high result to a combination of government support measures, including preferential mortgage lending, support for developers, and infrastructure initiatives1.
In 2024, the volume of housing completions totaled approximately 107.8 million m², which was about 2.4% lower than the record high set in 20232.
By the end of 2025, new housing completions had once again approached the previous level, reaching 108.1 million m², an increase of 0.4% year-over-year. Of this total, 59% of new housing completions were in single-family housing; the private sector grew by about 2%, while the multi-family sector declined by approximately 2%3.
Table 1. Housing Construction: 2023–2025
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Housing completions, million m² | 110.44 | 107.8 | 108.1 |
| Change from the previous year | record high | −2.4% | +0.4% |
| Structural Focus | Individual Housing Construction (IHC) already exceeds Multi-Family Housing (MFH) | IHC continues to account for a high proportion | 59% of new housing completions are IHC |
These three years paint a picture of high quantitative stability. However, the internal structure of this stability is changing.
Individual Housing Construction (IHC) occupies a central place in housing construction. This implies a different approach to land development.
A multi-unit apartment building creates density: a vertical utility system, a courtyard, an entrance hall, an elevator, public transportation, schools, kindergartens, parking lots, and commercial ground floors.
A single-family home forms a horizontal fabric: a lot, privacy, a more direct connection to the landscape, and at the same time—long utility networks, roads, wastewater systems, increased dependence on transportation, and a different scale of community services.
The same total square footage can create completely different geographies of everyday life.
A high total volume of housing indicates construction activity. The structure of new housing completions reveals the shape of future settlement patterns. For architects and developers, it is precisely the second indicator that becomes particularly important: single-family homes and multi-family buildings require different models of infrastructure, mobility, site ecology, and social services.
2. Architectural and Spatial Parameters of Residential Development in the Context of Institutional Market Changes
Housing is the part of the real estate market closest to people. A project’s economic indicators translate into the tangible structure of everyday life: room size, commute time, amount of natural light, noise from the window, the quality of the yard, proximity to schools, and the cost of the monthly payment.
Mass-market subsidized mortgages became one of the key mechanisms of the previous housing cycle. The expiration of the mass subsidized mortgage program on July 1, 2024, marked a new institutional milestone in the market’s development. The subsequent period was characterized by tight monetary policy, rising construction costs per square meter, conservative buyer behavior, and the replacement of traditional lending with developers’ installment plans.
In 2024, according to DOM.RF, Russian banks issued approximately 1.3 million mortgage loans totaling roughly 4.9 trillion rubles. The number of loans decreased by approximately 36%, and the total loan volume fell by 37% compared to the record-breaking year of 2023.
In the first half of 2025, approximately 340,000 mortgage loans were issued, totaling 1.5 trillion rubles. Compared to the first half of 2024, the number of loans issued fell by 55%, and the total value decreased by 47%.
Housing sales under pre-sale agreements in 2024 totaled 26.7 million square meters, down 22% from the record-breaking year of 2023. Following the conclusion of the large-scale subsidy program, the average monthly sales volume in the second half of the year was lower than in the first half; demand was supported by targeted subsidy programs and developers’ own initiatives.
These statistics reflect a qualitative transformation of the market: the need for housing persists, but the way this need is converted into effective demand is becoming more selective.
Buyers are paying closer attention to the ergonomics of floor plans, the availability of infrastructure, and subsequent operating costs. In a climate of liquidity shortages, the financial burden of excess floor space becomes just as evident as its spatial value.
Under these conditions, architectural design returns to its fundamental task: the spatial organization of everyday life.
An apartment is a complex system for organizing the environment. The effectiveness of this system is determined by the daily pattern of sunlight exposure, acoustic comfort parameters, the availability of storage areas, the ergonomics of spaces for remote work, as well as spatial connections: a child’s route, the distance between the bed and the window, the apartment’s connection to the courtyard, and the ability to step out of the building onto a lively street.
A residential neighborhood is already a territory. The project moves into the category of a complex territory. The design scope includes microclimatic factors: wind, shade, heat islands, water management, transportation, ground floors, schools, and the quality of public space.
Single-family housing construction adds complexity to the system by integrating ecosystem parameters: soil, topography, vegetation cover, and surface runoff. Priorities include engineering autonomy, the energy efficiency of building envelopes, the orientation of the house, the use of local materials, and the connection between the structure and the natural landscape.
In this system, the quality of housing becomes apparent long before interior finishes are applied. It begins with how the project interacts with the land.
3. The Financial Dimension of the Living Environment
A mortgage is a financial instrument, but its spatial impact is much broader.
It determines a family’s affordable budget, which in turn influences the size of the apartment, its distance from the city center, the type of building, the density of the neighborhood, and acceptable maintenance costs. Through mortgages, the financial system plays a role in shaping the overall fabric of the urban environment.
In the spring of 2025, the Bank of Russia’s key rate stood at 21% per annum.
By the end of August 2026, the rate had fallen to 14%.
This is already a different financial environment. It is becoming more accommodative relative to the peak conditions of 2024–2025, although the cost of capital remains a significant factor in project economics.
Interest rate dynamics operate through a series of mechanisms:
the cost of market mortgages → affordability of purchases → sales velocity → funding of escrow accounts → the cost of project financing → the decision to launch the next project.
That is why construction always lags behind.
At the same time, project financing creates a more stable institutional framework for residential development. By the end of 2025, the residential construction project financing portfolio had grown by 24% to 10.2 trillion rubles. In the fourth quarter alone, deposits into escrow accounts totaled approximately 2 trillion rubles, an increase of 46% from the previous quarter.
For developers, this means a close link between three factors: the pace of construction, the pace of sales, and the cost of capital.
For an architect, this relationship means that design solutions increasingly require economic precision as early as the conceptual stage.
A layout that adds floor area without adding value becomes a financial burden. An inefficient ground floor reduces commercial potential. Excessive paved area increases the thermal and operational footprint. Social infrastructure that is added too late diminishes the quality of the neighborhood precisely at the moment when the first residents are already forming their impressions of it.
The higher the cost of a mistake, the sooner the project must address questions regarding users, the environment, infrastructure, and the life cycle. Architecture serves as a tool for pre-evaluating a development decision.
4. From Quantity of Housing to Quality of the Environment
The era of widespread subsidized mortgages highlighted the ability of financial mechanisms to rapidly boost demand. The next phase places greater emphasis on the quality of the product itself.
This shift is important for architecture.
When demand is high, many spatial shortcomings have less market visibility. In a more selective environment, buyers are quicker to notice inconvenient layouts, a lack of storage, poor privacy, cluttered courtyards, dark ground floors, or dependence on a car.
Thus, the quality of the environment is gradually becoming an economic factor.
For multi-family housing, the following become key:
- efficient floor plans without wasted space;
- natural light and sunlight exposure;
- acoustic insulation;
- courtyard activities for different age groups;
- shade and microclimate in the summer;
- how ground floors interact with the street;
- walkable access to essential amenities;
- the ability to adapt the apartment as the family’s life changes;
- the durability of materials.
For single-family homes, the following are added:
- preservation of the terrain and existing vegetation;
- the site’s water balance;
- minimization of excessive paving;
- effective orientation of the house;
- optimizing for sun and wind;
- energy efficiency;
- local or renewable materials;
- the ability to repair, replace, and reuse components.
Here, ecological design serves a practical function. It reduces the impact on the site and operational costs, creating a more sustainable everyday environment.
5. Non-Residential Real Estate
For the residential market, there is a relatively unified public data system: Rosstat, DOM.RF, EISZS, the Bank of Russia, DDU, mortgages, and project financing.
The non-residential real estate market is somewhat more complex.
Federal statistics group together office, retail, industrial, warehouse, administrative, and social buildings. The professional market uses its own classification: property class, vacancy rate, rental rate, transaction, tenant, ownership structure, and lease term.
According to a report by the Ministry of Construction, as cited in industry publications, approximately 12.8 million m² of non-residential buildings were completed in Russia during the first half of 2024, and as of July 1, approximately 161.1 million m² of non-residential space was under construction.
These figures are of limited use, but they should not be directly compared with indicators for the Moscow office market or warehouses in the Moscow region.
Therefore, the office and warehouse segments are further examined through professional analysis, while maintaining the geography and methodology of each source.
6. Office
The Moscow office market is undergoing an interesting transition from a quantitative shortage to the more nuanced issue of matching the product to the user.
Hybrid work has preserved the office while changing its purpose.
When some tasks are performed from home, the value of the office lies in the very act of being there. People come to collaborate, hold meetings, foster team cohesion, feel a sense of belonging to the organization, exchange knowledge, and access infrastructure.
In the first half of 2025, CORE.XP recorded a total of 22,000 m² of new office space coming online in Moscow. The volume of new lease and sale transactions totaled 673,000 m², while the available supply in existing Prime, A, and B+ class business centers stood at 642,000 m².
By the end of 2025, the situation began to change. The total volume of lease and sale transactions amounted to approximately 1.5 million m², 31% lower than the previous year’s result. The vacancy rate reached 4.6%, or 878,000 m².
The first half of 2026 reinforced this shift.
In Moscow, 648,000 m² of new office space had already been delivered—the highest figure for the first half of the year since 2014. The volume of new transactions totaled 541,000 m², which was 19% less than in the same period of 2025. The vacancy rate reached 7.0%, or 1.389 million m². CORE.XP characterizes this process as a gradual shift in the balance toward tenants.
Table 2. Moscow Office Market: Shift in the Balance
Metric | H1 2025 | End of 2025 | H1 2026 |
New supply | 22 thousand sq. m | — | 648 thousand sq. m |
New deals | 673 thousand sq. m | 1.5 million sq. m per year | 541 thousand sq. m |
Vacancy rate | low level | 4.6% | 7.0% |
The shift from a shortage to a market of choice is transforming the office product itself.
Building class remains important, but specific factors are now added to the mix: location, transportation, finished interiors, building systems, floor depth, unit size, natural light, acoustics, services, common areas, and the ability to quickly adapt the space to a new team structure.
In the first half of 2026, 87% of lease transactions, according to CORE.XP, involved fully finished offices.
This figure is particularly telling.
Tenants are buying speed of occupancy and the quality of an environment that is already up and running.
The office is becoming a place of meaningful presence.
Its architecture must explain why people should come here, even though part of their work can be done from anywhere.
Consequently, the importance of spaces that are difficult to quantify in terms of the number of workstations is growing: areas for meetings, informal interaction, concentration, and learning; indoor gardens; terraces; high-quality common areas; and lighting and acoustic comfort.
Corporate real estate is increasingly serving as a physical expression of an organization’s culture.
7. Warehouses: The New Anatomy of the Urban Periphery
For a long time, warehouse real estate remained a visually insignificant part of the city. Economically, however, its importance has long transcended this role.
A modern warehouse is an infrastructural entity. It connects manufacturing, e-commerce, retail, major transportation routes, urban districts, and the end consumer.
Its architectural program begins with movement.
A truck enters the premises.
The cargo is unloaded at the dock.
The goods are sorted.
Some are sent further along the regional network.
Others go for city delivery.
Each stage requires space, energy, engineering, personnel, and transportation infrastructure.
In the Moscow region, by the end of 2025, the vacancy rate for Class A warehouse space reached 4.8%, and the weighted average base rent fell to 10,800 rubles/m²/year. The volume of new Class A and B construction amounted to approximately 2.3–2.5 million m², depending on the reporting date and methodology.
This represents a significant shift from the period of near-zero vacancy rates.
In 2026, the correction continued. In the first quarter, CMWP recorded a rise in the vacancy rate to 5.4%. In the second quarter, the weighted average base rent fell to 9,150 rubles/m²/year, approximately 25% below the peak levels of 2025.
The market is becoming more selective.
Tenants now have room to negotiate. For developers, the specific utility of a property is becoming increasingly important.
Floor space remains the foundation. Logistical efficiency is becoming the key selling point.
This means focusing on:
- access roads;
- dock configurations;
- column spacing;
- floor load capacity;
- storage height;
- energy capacity;
- automation capabilities;
- divisibility of units;
- labor resources;
- sanitary buffers;
- drainage;
- and the building’s potential for future adaptation.
The architectural significance of a warehouse extends far beyond its facade.
A large logistics facility generates traffic flow, alters the character of the road, shapes work routes, increases demand for electricity and water, and affects surface runoff and nighttime lighting in the surrounding area.
Therefore, warehouse architecture is the design of the periphery.
8. Environmental Design of Warehouse and Industrial Sites
The warehouse’s environmental strategy is practical in nature.
The large roof area generates a significant volume of stormwater runoff. The large parking lot and maneuvering area increase the proportion of impervious surfaces. Dark surfaces intensify local heating. Extensive outdoor lighting affects the nighttime environment. Transportation creates noise and air pollution.
Each of these factors can be translated into a design objective.
Water management—through stormwater retention and gradual drainage, bio-drainage, permeable areas, and local storage basins.
Thermal management—through light-colored surfaces, green buffers, shade, and a balanced ratio of paved areas to natural soil.
Energy—through an efficient building envelope, lighting control, and the use of large rooftops as a potential energy resource.
Staff environment—through a well-designed pedestrian route, natural light in administrative and amenity spaces, recreational areas, and access to green spaces.
In this way, sustainable design becomes an integral part of the facility’s overall efficiency.
9. Three Markets—Three Forms of Environment
Housing, offices, and warehouses exist within the same economy, but they organize space in different ways.
Housing Creates Everyday Life
Its impact is measured by how a person wakes up, leaves home, takes a child to school, works, relaxes, and returns home in the evening.
Offices create a sense of presence
Their impact is evident in the space’s ability to bring people together, sustain focus, facilitate knowledge exchange, and foster organizational identity.
Warehouses create flow
Their impact lies in the speed and stability of the movement of goods between production, distribution, and consumption.
Table 3. Environmental Criteria Based on Spatial Typology
Criterion | Residential | Office | Warehouse |
Main user | Person / Family | Organization / Team | Goods flow / Operator |
Financial framework | Mortgage, off-plan purchase agreements, project financing | Lease, purchase, corporate CAPEX | Lease, BTS, owned facility |
Spatial scale | Apartment → Courtyard → Neighborhood | Workplace → Floor → Business cluster | Dock → Logistics park → Transport ring |
Key resource | Quality of daily life | Quality of presence | Efficiency of movement |
Main architectural risk | Weak environment at high density | Generic office without a scenario | Space without logistical efficiency |
Environmental task | Water, microclimate, energy, green infrastructure | Light, air, adaptability, materials | Water, energy, transport, buffers |
Long-term legacy | Lifestyle | Work culture | Geography of consumption |
This matrix illustrates a fundamental point: the single term “real estate market” encompasses typologies with completely different spatial implications.
10. What This Means for Developers
The shift toward a more selective market increases the value of an accurate project hypothesis.
In the residential sector, the financial model is increasingly tied to the quality of the environment. Efficient use of space, strong floor plans, infrastructure, green features, and operational efficiency are becoming key factors in a product’s competitiveness.
In the office sector, growing supply is giving tenants back their ability to choose. The readiness of the space, engineering flexibility, transportation accessibility, and occupancy scenarios are gaining direct commercial value.
In the warehouse sector, rising vacancy rates are intensifying competition among properties. Location, logistics, energy efficiency, automation, and a building’s adaptability are becoming decisive factors.
A broader conclusion follows from this.
An architectural concept yields the greatest benefit at an early stage—when the site is still viewed as a set of possibilities, and the financial model allows for changes to the product.
It is precisely at this moment that key questions can be asked:
- What kind of tenant will be here in five years?
- What infrastructure will the site require?
- How will traffic flow change?
- How will the building function in summer and winter?
- Which elements will be able to change their function?
- What will the operating costs be?
- What part of the existing landscape can be preserved?
- Which materials will survive the first cycle of use and be able to be reused in the second?
These questions transform architecture from a final shell into a tool for development diagnostics.
11. The Market in 2026: A Shift from Rigidity to Choice
Operational data from 2026 provides an important clarification of the picture spanning three full years.
The financial environment is becoming more accommodative. The Bank of Russia’s key rate had fallen to 14% by August 31, 2026, down from 21% in the spring of 2025.
The mortgage portfolio reached 22.5 trillion rubles by July 2026, and the volume of new loans issued in July alone totaled 363.4 billion rubles. The Bank of Russia designates these figures as preliminary operational data.
Office supply in Moscow is growing, and the vacancy rate reached 7% in the first half of the year.
The warehouse market in the Moscow region is also moving toward higher vacancy rates and lower rents.
These trends share a common thread:
the choice is shifting back to the user.
Homebuyers are comparing projects more carefully.
Office tenants have more options.
Warehouse operators are strengthening their negotiating position.
For developers, this signals a new level of competition.
The era when a shortage could compensate for a mediocre product is gradually giving way to an era where a project’s value must be proven.
Conclusion: The Market as a Building Block of Architecture
Over the past three years, the Russian real estate market has maintained a high level of construction activity while simultaneously undergoing changes in its internal structure.
In the residential sector, high completion rates are accompanied by the growing role of individual housing construction, changes in the mortgage model, and more selective demand.
In the office sector, a period of scarcity in high-quality supply is giving way to a phase of expanding choice. The existing environment, flexibility, and the quality of the location are gaining greater importance.
In the warehouse sector, a period of frenzied demand is giving way to a normalization of vacancy rates and rental rates. Logistical efficiency is becoming the key feature of the product.
These processes have one thing in common: the market is increasingly scrutinizing the quality of spatial concepts.
Financial parameters can change rapidly. The Bank of Russia’s key rate fell from a peak of 21% to 14% during the period under review. Market cycles shift. Support programs are launched and come to an end.
The building remains.
Its location on the ground remains.
The courtyard remains.
The road remains.
The ground floor remains.
Energy consumption remains.
The tree that was saved remains, or the plot that has completely lost its living soil.
A convenient commute remains, or a daily annoyance.
Architecture remains.
Therefore, the real estate market serves as the subject matter for architectural research.
It reveals where society allocates capital and, at the same time, what kind of environment it creates for its own future.
Architecture translates this economic hypothesis into material reality.
And it is precisely at this stage that it becomes clear how viable the hypothesis is.
Limitations of the Study
The study uses three full calendar years—2023, 2024, and 2025—as its primary basis for comparison.
Data for 2026 is based on the latest available figures: the key rate as of August 31, 2026; mortgage statistics through July 2026; and office and warehouse market data primarily based on results from the first half of the year or the second quarter.
Housing data is based on materials from the Ministry of Construction, Rosstat, the Bank of Russia, DOM.RF, and industry publications citing these sources.
Office and warehouse analytics utilize professional data from CORE.XP and CMWP. Their metrics apply to specific geographic areas, property classes, and corporate methodologies. Therefore, they characterize the corresponding professional markets and maintain their own boundaries of comparability.
Interpretations of the relationship between the economy and architecture constitute the author’s analytical layer of the study. Their purpose is to illustrate the spatial consequences of confirmed market processes.
Main Sources
- Russian Ministry of Construction / Rosstat — 2023 housing construction results: 110.44 million m² of total housing completions; 51.76 million m² of multi-family housing; 58.68 million m² of single-family housing.
- Rosstat / 2024 industry results — 107.8 million m² of housing completed.
- Rosstat via Kommersant — 108.1 million m² of housing completed in 2025; 59% share of single-family housing.
- DOM.RF / RBC — mortgage lending and sales of new-construction homes in 2024.
- DOM.RF / BFM — mortgages for the first half of 2025.
- Central Bank of Russia — key rate trends for 2024–2026.
- Central Bank of Russia — Project financing for housing construction in 2025.
- Central Bank of Russia — Operational statistics on mortgage lending for July 2026.
- CORE.XP — Moscow office market, 2025 and the first half of 2026.
- CMWP — Moscow Region warehouse market, 2025–2026.